The Virtual Domain
Eric Butow
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'Tis the Season
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Looking Forward
At long last, the year 2000 is upon us and we can finally get on with experiencing the year instead of the hype. I don't expect that the new year will ring in with the chaos depicted in Nike's newest Y2K commercial, but 2000 promises to be interesting from the start since it's a presidential election year. What's more, computing developments in 1999 will affect not only the computing industry, but also the presidential election, thanks to the recent court decision against Microsoft. Unlike many other commentators and columnists who are flooding the media with prognostications about the upcoming year, I'd like to tell some of these computing company leaders the one thing I'd like to see them do in the coming year.
To Steve Ballmer, President, Microsoft:
Talk with your customers again.
Steve, there is no doubt that your company will go through a lot this coming year. The findings of fact in the government's antitrust case will give companies a lot of fodder for bringing even more lawsuits against Microsoft. Even so, all your court battles won't affect the average user much until the end of the year at the earliest, and that's only if the Supreme Court decides to hear the antitrust case accelerated by a little-known antitrust law that speeds the process up dramatically.
On the product front, you're working to get Windows 2000 to customers in February, and you'll have to convince your customers that it's worth upgrading to. I don't think many of your customers will upgrade until the end of next year at the earliest, and without a lot of new products on the horizon that I can see, it's possible Microsoft's financial earnings and stock prices will remain flaccid. There's been a Portland financial adviser who's been getting some press for charging that Microsoft has been cooking the financial books for the past few years to keep the stock price up. It'll be interesting to see if any financial weakness Microsoft has proves that adviser correct.
With all these challenges, there is one problem that's lurking just below the surface that could be lethal to Microsoft: Your top people aren't going out to talk with customers anymore. You've put walls between yourselves and your customers by putting on environments that you control, and many times that means you don't have to talk with your customers face-to-face. That sense of detachment can be very dangerous in a PC world where users don't have a lot of loyalties (unlike the Macintosh world). It also magnifies your company's actions, especially in the eyes of the media. That magnification is already affecting the court of public opinion. I hope you and your top people-including Bill Gates-can go out to venues like trade shows and, yes, user groups to find out what customers are thinking about. If you don't get out to talk to your customers, you may find Microsoft second to a company that does sooner than you think.
To Steve Jobs, iCEO, Apple:
Find your replacement.
Steve, this should be the year you find your permanent replacement as Apple CEO. You've done a great job turning the company around, but there are disturbing signs that you're losing your touch. Two recent examples of recent gaffes are the bait-and-switch game you pulled with your new PowerMac G4s and your near-abandonment of the British Macintosh market.
There's no doubt that you have a lot of exciting things to talk about, starting with the Macworld Expo next month, including further upgrades to the MacOS (including OS X), your PowerBooks, and maybe even a handheld unit to replace the Newton. I think 2000 will be the year that Apple finally has a product in every major computing category, and I think the 2001 Macworld Expo should be the event where you introduce your successor. If not, then you'll end up not only tarnishing your own reputation but finally killing off Apple.
To Michael Cowpland, CEO, Corel:
Ditto.
Michael, you've had a great run, but you keep getting into trouble. The latest problem is that you've been charged with insider trading, and this news has obscured the good news that Corel is back in the black. I think now is the time to leave so that your successor can provide a fresh perspective and energy to the company.
Michael, you've had a great run, but you keep getting into trouble. The latest problem is that you've been charged with insider trading, and this news has obscured the good news that Corel is back in the black. I think now is the time to leave so that your successor can provide a fresh perspective and energy to the company.
To me, Corel is rather stale in its packaging and approach to selling software. What's worse, Corel DRAW is the leader in a saturated market and you've been groping around trying to find an operating system so Wordperfect Office can gain a new lease on life. First it was JAVA, and that went nowhere. Now you have a LINUX version of Wordperfect and you even have your own LINUX distribution. I think sticking with LINUX is a good plan, and now that the company has a direction with LINUX, has consolidated operations, and is profitable again, it's time to step down while you're at the top.
To Scott McNealy, CEO, Sun:
Find a direction.
When I heard that Sun was buying Wordperfect, I heard Ray Noorda in my head. You remember Ray, right? He ran a company called Novell and he bought a completely unrelated company called Wordperfect. Ray wanted to use Wordperfect to get Microsoft, and it seems you bought Wordperfect for the same personal ends. At least with Wordperfect there's a nice symmetry with product names-all you have to do is promote a product with Moon in the name. You also have the ability to sell Wordperfect on multiple platforms, and that should get you an extra 0.1 percent market share out of that. Other than that, what were you thinking?
To Larry Ellison, CEO, Oracle:
Don't flout the law.
Flying your plane after curfew is really tacky, and it's something you don't want to challenge the city of San Jose about. After all, it only leads to bad publicity and ticked-off law enforcement.
To the new CEO of iOmega:
Find a buyer.
Whoever you may be, your time as an independent company has come to an end. Your Zip drives are ubiquitous now, and your company has raised the bar for portable storage. But you can't make it as an independent company with just a few products. I think finding a company to buy iOmega will give the Zip drive the corporate stability it deserves and will extend the Zip drive's life for the foreseeable future. I'd be very happy to see that.
To my readers:
Thank you and have a happy holiday season.
Enough said. See you in Y2K!
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